Gold Pulls Back from $3,150 High – What’s Next?
Gold (XAU/USD) has entered a corrective phase after hitting resistance near $3,150, with prices now testing the crucial $2,950 support level. The retreat follows overbought signals and shifting market dynamics, including US tariff exemptions for gold, reducing short-term demand.
Key Factors Driving Gold’s Correction
✅ Trump’s Tariff Exemption – Gold was excluded from new US import tariffs, easing immediate buying pressure.
✅ Strong US Jobs Data – March’s 228K new jobs and 4.2% unemployment boosted the US Dollar (DXY), weighing on gold.
✅ Fed Rate Cut Uncertainty – Persistent inflation above 2% may delay aggressive Fed easing, keeping USD supported.
✅ Treasury Yields Decline – The 10-year yield fell below 4.0%, but wage growth could limit further drops.
Gold (XAU) Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch
Daily Chart: Correction Within Uptrend
- Resistance: $3,150 (recent peak)
- Support: $2,950 (critical level – break below could trigger deeper correction)
- 50-Day SMA acting as dynamic support
- RSI retreating from overbought zone (70+), suggesting cooling momentum
4-Hour Chart: Ascending Channel Test
- Gold remains in an ascending channel, but a drop below $3,000 may signal a bearish shift.
- If $2,950 holds, bulls may regain control for a retest of $3,150.
US Dollar & Treasury Yields: Impact on Gold
DXY (US Dollar Index) Outlook
- Rebound from 100.65 support, eyeing 103.50 resistance
- Break above 104.70 could signal a bullish reversal, pressuring gold further.
10-Year Treasury Yields (TNX) Analysis
- Yields broke below 4.10%, now testing 3.90%
- Oversold RSI suggests potential rebound, but long-term trend remains uncertain.
Gold Forecast: Buy the Dip or Brace for More Losses?
🔹 Bullish Scenario: If $2,950 holds, gold could resume its uptrend toward $3,150+.
🔹 Bearish Scenario: A break below $2,950 may trigger a deeper drop toward $2,850.
Trading Strategy:
- Short-term traders may look for pullbacks near $2,950 for potential long entries.
- Aggressive sellers could target a breakdown below $2,950 with stops above $3,000.
Final Thoughts: Volatility Ahead for Gold Prices
With Fed policy uncertainty, USD strength, and shifting Treasury yields, gold remains in a corrective phase. Traders should monitor:
✅ US inflation & Fed rate expectations
✅ DXY breakout above 104.70
✅ Gold’s reaction at $2,950 support
