Gold prices (XAU/USD) pulled back from recent highs as improved market sentiment and US-China tariff exemptions reduced short-term safe-haven demand. However, Goldman Sachs has raised its 2025 gold price forecast to $3,700/oz, citing strong central bank demand and recession hedging.
Key Factors Driving Gold Prices
1. Market Sentiment Eases Haven Demand
- Gold dipped to $3,193 after the US open as risk appetite improved.
- US tariff exemptions on Chinese tech products boosted market optimism.
- Comments from US Commerce Secretary Lutnick on trade negotiations further supported sentiment.
2. Goldman Sachs Bullish Gold Forecast
- **Year-end 2025 target raised to 3,700/oz∗∗(from3,700/oz∗∗(from3,300).
- Potential range of 3,650–3,650–3,950 if recession fears intensify.
- Central bank buying and gold ETF inflows remain key drivers.
3. Macro Risks Keep Gold Supported
- Geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainty limit downside.
- Any pullbacks likely to be shallow with elevated volatility expected.
Technical Analysis: Is Gold Heading to $3,250?
- H1 Chart Support at $3,195 – Critical level to watch.
- RSI (14) Exits Overbought Zone – Momentum shift possible.
- $3,250 Next Resistance – Breakout could signal fresh highs.
Gold Price Outlook: What’s Next?
While short-term profit-taking may pressure gold, long-term bullish trends remain intact. Investors should monitor:
- US economic data & Fed policy
- Geopolitical developments
- Central bank gold demand
If recession risks escalate, gold could surge toward $3,880/oz by year-end.
