Bitcoin Rallies on Trump’s Tariff Pause Announcement
The Bitcoin price surged 5% in under an hour on April 9, reclaiming $83,000 after US President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on tariffs (excluding China). The move triggered a broader market rally, with the S&P 500 gaining 8%.
However, BTC derivatives data suggests traders remain cautious, particularly due to uncertainty around:
- US long-term bond yields
- Federal Reserve interest rate cuts
- Macroeconomic stagflation risks
Why Are Bitcoin Traders Hesitant?
1. Fed Rate Cut Uncertainty
- The CME FedWatch Tool shows the probability of rate cuts below 4% by September 17 dropped from 97.6% to 69.7% in just one day (April 8-9).
- FOMC meeting minutes revealed concerns about stagflation, dampening hopes for aggressive monetary easing.
2. 10-Year Treasury Yield Volatility
- A declining 10-year yield signals weakening confidence in US debt sustainability.
- Economist Peter Boockvar warns: “Foreign investors may continue reducing US Treasury holdings.”
- Rising yields could increase debt rollover costs, further pressuring the US dollar.
3. Bitcoin Derivatives Show Mixed Signals
- BTC futures premium briefly exceeded 5% but failed to sustain momentum.
- Options skew spiked to 12% (bearish) before stabilizing at 3% (neutral) post-tariff news.
- Perpetual futures funding rates remain in a neutral range (0.4%-1.4%), indicating no extreme leverage demand.
Key Takeaways for Crypto Investors
✅ Short-term bullish momentum from tariff pause
⚠️ Long-term caution due to Fed policy & bond market risks
📉 Derivatives suggest traders are waiting for clearer signals
What’s Next for Bitcoin?
- Macroeconomic data (inflation, jobs reports) will dictate Fed rate decisions.
- BTC price stability above $80K could attract stronger institutional interest.
- A break above $85K may confirm a new bullish phase.
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