Gold Price Outlook: China Tariffs & MCX Rate Impact
Gold prices in Indian markets (MCX) could see a pullback, with experts predicting a potential decline to ₹87,000 per kg—or even ₹84,000—in the coming days. The drop follows China’s new tariff announcements, sparking a sell-off in global and domestic gold markets.
On Friday, MCX gold fell 2.17% to ₹88,099 per 10 grams, while global spot gold dropped 2.4% to $3,041.11 per ounce as investors shifted away from safe-haven assets.
Why Are Gold Prices Falling? Key Factors
- China Tariff Impact – The latest trade policies triggered profit booking, as markets had already priced in tariff risks.
- Reduced Safe-Haven Demand – Easing Russia-Ukraine & Middle East tensions lowered gold’s appeal.
- Strong US Jobs Data – March’s robust non-farm payrolls reduced expectations of aggressive Fed rate cuts, pressuring gold further.
Expert Insights: How Low Can Gold Go?
1. Profit Booking & Trade War Effects
Jateen Trivedi (LKP Securities VP Research) explains:
- “Gold saw profit booking post-China tariff news, as markets had already adjusted for trade war risks.”
- “With geopolitical tensions cooling, demand for gold as a safe-haven asset may soften.”
- Technical levels to watch:
- Resistance: 3,120−3,120−3,130 (Comex)
- Support: 3,050−3,050−3,055 – A break below could trigger further selling.
2. Domestic Gold Price Forecast
Sugandha Sachdeva (SS WealthStreet Founder) adds:
- “Gold’s rally is facing headwinds due to global trade disruptions.”
- “Trump’s exclusion of gold from tariffs eased supply fears, reducing price support.”
- MCX gold could test:
- First support: ₹87,000 per kg
- Next critical level: ₹84,000 if selling pressure continues.
What’s Next for Gold Investors?
- Short-term bearish trend: Prices may dip further if US inflation & Fed policies remain restrictive.
- Long-term bullish case: Any escalation in geopolitical risks or Fed rate cuts could revive demand.
Traders should monitor:
✔ US economic data (Inflation, Fed statements)
✔ Geopolitical developments (Middle East, Ukraine)
✔ MCX gold support levels (₹87,000 & ₹84,000)
Final Takeaway
Gold’s recent drop reflects shifting market dynamics, with China tariffs and Fed policies playing a key role. While short-term weakness is likely, long-term investors should stay alert for new buying opportunities if prices stabilize.
