US Dollar (USD) Analysis
The US Dollar Index (USDX) is forming a significant Head & Shoulders (H&S) top pattern, signaling a potential bearish trend. We have taken a short position, expecting further declines.
Elliott Wave Analysis for USDX
- Within wave -iii-, wave $i$ was completed at 107.15, followed by wave $ii$ at 108.42.
- Wave $iii$ appears to be subdividing:
- Wave !i! ended at 106.03.
- Wave !ii! is currently retracing and has entered its key levels:
- 50% retracement: 107.23
- 61.8% retracement: 107.51
- Once wave !ii! completes, a strong decline in wave !iii! of $iii$ is expected.
- Projected target for wave $iii$: 104.21 (1.618 extension of $i$).
💡 Trading Recommendation: Short USD, with a stop-loss at 111.00.
📌 Active Positions: Short USD, stop at 111.00.
US Stock Market (S&P 500) Forecast
The S&P 500 (SPX) presents a potentially bearish outlook, with indications of an Ending Diagonal Triangle for wave .v. of -v-.
Elliott Wave Analysis for SPX
- If wave .v. of -v- of V has completed at 6147.43, we are now falling in wave .i.
- Wave $i$ was completed at 5908.49
- Wave $ii$ retraced to 6009.82
- If wave $ii$ is complete, we are now in wave $iii$, with a projected target of 5622.82 (1.618 extension of $i$).
- Expect further downside as wave $iii$ unfolds.
💡 Trading Recommendation: Short SPX, with a call option as a stop.
📌 Active Positions: Short SPX, using a call option as a stop.
Gold Market Outlook
Gold prices are in a strong bullish trend, with an ongoing wave $v$ targeting higher levels.
Elliott Wave Analysis for Gold
- Wave $v$ has a projected target of 3035.50 (1.618 extension of 2431.50 – 1973.10).
- Within wave $v$:
- Wave ** i ** completed at 2483.70
- Wave ** ii ** corrected to 2353.20
- Wave ** iii ** is currently rallying, with an updated target of 3200.00 (4.236 extension of ** i **).
- After wave ** iii ** ends, a correction in wave ** iv ** is expected, retracing 23.6% – 38.2% of the rally.
- Final target for wave -iii-: 3199.90 (6.25 extension of -i-).
💡 Trading Recommendation: Long gold, using put options as a stop.
📌 Active Positions: Long gold, with puts as stops.
Final Thoughts
The US dollar is showing signs of weakness, while the stock market faces potential downside risks. Meanwhile, gold remains in a bullish phase, offering strong upside potential. Traders should remain vigilant, follow risk management strategies, and monitor key support and resistance levels.
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