GBP/AUD Exchange Rate Outlook: PMI Data in Focus This Week
The Pound to Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) exchange rate saw strong gains last week as risk-off flows boosted the British Pound (GBP) while weighing on the Australian Dollar (AUD).
Key Drivers for GBP/AUD This Week
-
UK & Australia PMI Data – June’s preliminary reports will be crucial for both currencies.
-
UK Services Sector Strength – A rebound could further support the Pound.
-
AUD Vulnerable to Risk Sentiment – Geopolitical tensions and commodity prices remain key factors.
Weekly Recap: Why Did GBP/AUD Rally?
-
UK Inflation Holds Above BoE Target – May’s CPI cooled to 3.4% (headline) and 3.5% (core), but remained too high for an immediate rate cut.
-
BoE Holds Rates at 5.25% – Governor Bailey pushed back against August rate cut expectations, supporting GBP.
-
Weak UK Retail Sales – A surprise -2.7% slump in May briefly capped Sterling’s gains.
-
AUD Hit by Risk-Off Flows – Middle East tensions and weak Australian jobs data (employment contraction in May) dragged the Aussie lower.
This Week’s Key Events
| Date | Event | Potential Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Mon/Tue | UK & Australia Flash PMIs | Strong UK services PMI could lift GBP, while AUD needs manufacturing rebound |
| Wed/Thu | Market Risk Sentiment | AUD remains sensitive to global risk appetite |
| Ongoing | BoE Rate Cut Speculation | Hawkish signals could extend GBP strength |
Technical Outlook: Where Next for GBP/AUD?
-
Current Rate: £1 = AU$2.0793 (steady from Friday’s close).
-
Resistance Levels: AU$2.0850 (June high), AU$2.1000 (psychological barrier).
-
Support Levels: AU$2.0700 (near-term floor), AU$2.0600 (key trendline).
Expert Take: Will the Rally Continue?
*”If UK PMIs outperform and risk aversion persists, GBP/AUD could push toward AU$2.10. However, a recovery in commodity prices or easing geopolitical tensions may give AUD some relief.”*
Key Takeaways for Traders
✅ GBP Strength – Supported by delayed BoE rate cut expectations.
✅ AUD Weakness – Hit by risk-off flows and soft domestic data.
⚠ Watch PMIs & Risk Sentiment – The biggest near-term drivers for GBP/AUD.
